So a new poll is out on public opinion in the Arab world and guess what? Arabs are disenchanted with Obama and the US's policy in the Middle East and the main reason is the Administration's handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While this may not seem like news to many who follow the issue closely, some of the details of the poll are intriguing, and the poll itself is a necessary part of the public discussion on policy here in Washington which too often neglects the views of Arabs.
There are important shifts in this year's poll which are noteworthy. This slide sums up the key point. In one year, generally positive veiws of President Obama plummeted from 45% in 2009 to 20% in 2010. Consequently, negative views increased dramatically. It's important to keep in mind that the 2009 poll was conducted in the spring prior to Obama's June speech in Cairo which was received with cautious optimism. This means that in the span of one year, its likely that the roller-coaster that is Arab views of the American president was even more extreme.
This is undoubtedly due to the President's handling of Palestine and his relationship with
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The 2010 poll, concluded only recently at the end of July, captures opinion just after Netanyahu's conciliatory meeting at the White House which the Arab world likely viewed with disgust. If there are any doubts about what issue Arabs view as most important when it comes to evaluating the United States, this second slide should effectively eliminate them.
The extent of Obama's popularity in the Arab world was a function of two things. First, he was an American President not named George W. Bush for the first time after 8 devastating years of American blunders in the region. That alone helped. But it is also likely that his initial opposition to the War on Iraq led many in the Arab world to believe Obama would be genuinely different.
Of course, the Arab world, especially when it comes to the issue of Palestine, has grown tired of promises and false hopes. Even after Obama's speech in Cairo, the general reaction in the Arab world was "that sounds nice but let's see some action." After a few weeks, let alone 18 months, the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately attitude (or in this case the what-have-you-done-for-me-ever attitude) started to set in.
Those in the Arab world who held out hope probably lost it after the latest Netanyahu-Obama meeting which the Washington Post's Dana Milbank described as the raising of the proverbial white flag over the White House. The influence of domestic politics and the Israel Lobby is not lost on the Arab world either. Check out the slide to the right. In a significant reversal over the past three years, the Arab world now believes that Israel dictates to the United States and not vice versa. This is dangerous because it means Arabs have lost faith in the US's ability to broker peace, not necessarily because they don't believe Washington wants peace, but because they don't believe Washington could do what it takes to achieve peace even if they wanted it.
So for the Arab world, it no longer matters who the US President is; the outcome will be predetermined for them if they are Republican or Democrat, Walker or Hussein.
It's important to keep in mind that the Arab world was at boiling point at the end of George W. Bush's presidency. With devastation, siege and severe civilian casualties in war torn Gaza and American troops in seemingly endless unnecessary wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the countdown to Bush's last day in office could not possibly move quick enough.
But as Arabs reflect on the past year an a half of US mediation attempts and policy in the Middle East, they are coming to the realization that the countdown to the Bush presidency may never have ended.
*Full Disclosure Note: Professor Shibley Telhami, who conducts the poll on a yearly basis, was one of my professors at the University of Maryland. I admire his scholarship and approach to international relations and have had lively seminar discussions, sometimes disagreeing in the past, on analysis of this poll and also on the question of whether or not Arab public opinion matters in the autocratic societies most Arabs find themselves in. I have always found the research to be thought provoking and important. Professor Telhami along with Dr. As'ad Ghanem gave an important talk here at the Palestine Center last fall analyzing recent polling data on the views of Palestinian citizens of Israel. You can see the video and transcript of that event here.
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There are important shifts in this year's poll which are noteworthy. This slide sums up the key point. In one year, generally positive veiws of President Obama plummeted from 45% in 2009 to 20% in 2010. Consequently, negative views increased dramatically. It's important to keep in mind that the 2009 poll was conducted in the spring prior to Obama's June speech in Cairo which was received with cautious optimism. This means that in the span of one year, its likely that the roller-coaster that is Arab views of the American president was even more extreme.
This is undoubtedly due to the President's handling of Palestine and his relationship with
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The 2010 poll, concluded only recently at the end of July, captures opinion just after Netanyahu's conciliatory meeting at the White House which the Arab world likely viewed with disgust. If there are any doubts about what issue Arabs view as most important when it comes to evaluating the United States, this second slide should effectively eliminate them.The extent of Obama's popularity in the Arab world was a function of two things. First, he was an American President not named George W. Bush for the first time after 8 devastating years of American blunders in the region. That alone helped. But it is also likely that his initial opposition to the War on Iraq led many in the Arab world to believe Obama would be genuinely different.
Of course, the Arab world, especially when it comes to the issue of Palestine, has grown tired of promises and false hopes. Even after Obama's speech in Cairo, the general reaction in the Arab world was "that sounds nice but let's see some action." After a few weeks, let alone 18 months, the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately attitude (or in this case the what-have-you-done-for-me-ever attitude) started to set in.
Those in the Arab world who held out hope probably lost it after the latest Netanyahu-Obama meeting which the Washington Post's Dana Milbank described as the raising of the proverbial white flag over the White House. The influence of domestic politics and the Israel Lobby is not lost on the Arab world either. Check out the slide to the right. In a significant reversal over the past three years, the Arab world now believes that Israel dictates to the United States and not vice versa. This is dangerous because it means Arabs have lost faith in the US's ability to broker peace, not necessarily because they don't believe Washington wants peace, but because they don't believe Washington could do what it takes to achieve peace even if they wanted it.
So for the Arab world, it no longer matters who the US President is; the outcome will be predetermined for them if they are Republican or Democrat, Walker or Hussein.
It's important to keep in mind that the Arab world was at boiling point at the end of George W. Bush's presidency. With devastation, siege and severe civilian casualties in war torn Gaza and American troops in seemingly endless unnecessary wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the countdown to Bush's last day in office could not possibly move quick enough.
But as Arabs reflect on the past year an a half of US mediation attempts and policy in the Middle East, they are coming to the realization that the countdown to the Bush presidency may never have ended.
*Full Disclosure Note: Professor Shibley Telhami, who conducts the poll on a yearly basis, was one of my professors at the University of Maryland. I admire his scholarship and approach to international relations and have had lively seminar discussions, sometimes disagreeing in the past, on analysis of this poll and also on the question of whether or not Arab public opinion matters in the autocratic societies most Arabs find themselves in. I have always found the research to be thought provoking and important. Professor Telhami along with Dr. As'ad Ghanem gave an important talk here at the Palestine Center last fall analyzing recent polling data on the views of Palestinian citizens of Israel. You can see the video and transcript of that event here.
