What changed Abbas' mind? Connect the Dots...

In the spirit of this Mondoweiss post, let's play connect dots to see what might explain Abbas' willingness to participate in the relaunch of direct peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians.

Dot 1. July 28th - Abbas tells Arab League he refuses to agree to direct talks before a settlement freeze:

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will tell the Arab League on Thursday indirect talks with Israel have not progressed enough to justify face-to-face peace negotiations, a Palestinian official said on Wednesday.

"Abbas will tell them that, until this moment, there is nothing to convince us to go to direct talks," the official told Reuters. "There is nothing new."

Resisting U.S. pressure, the Palestinian leader has said he first wants indirect talks to make progress, specifically on the issues of the security and borders of a Palestinian state he aims to found on land occupied by Israel since 1967.

Dot 2. July 28th - Clinton “burning up phone lines” to Middle East:

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been “burning up the phone lines” the past five days to try and lay the groundwork for a transition from indirect to direct Israel-Palestinian peace talks, aides say.

Clinton’s phone calls with Arab and Israeli leaders come in advance of a meeting Thursday of Arab foreign ministers to decide if they will give their blessing to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas for direct talks with the Israelis, rather than U.S.-mediated proximity talks...

“We have a full-court press underway to see if we can move to direct negotiations,” State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Tuesday. “We’re hopeful that the parties will reach this point, but I can’t pinpoint a particular day on the calendar.”

In the last five days, Clinton has spoken “multiple times” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, twice with the Jordanian and Egyptian foreign ministers, as well as with the Saudi foreign minister, Qatari prime minister....

Dot 3. July 29th - Arab League backs direct talks:

In a Cairo meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to discuss the renewal of direct talks Thursday, the Arab League said that it endorsed direct talks within certain conditions when the Palestinian side was ready to proceed. In the meantime, they said, the League supported indirect negotiations.

Qatar's Prime Minister, Sheik Hamad bin Jassem Al Thani, chaired the meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Cairo. He said that while Arab nations have endorsed direct Palestinian talks with the Israelis in principle, they have left the timing to the Palestinians themselves.

Dot 4. August 18th - PA denies rumors salaries won't be paid:

Denying reports that the Palestinian Authority faces a major cash crisis and may not be able to pay August salaries, a PA official said Wednesday that workers will find money in the bank at the end of the month.

PA spokesman Ghassan Al-Khatib conceded, however, that the government was facing a "very severe financial crisis, but one that is being managed" and affirmed that Ramallah could afford to pay salaries this month.

Al-Khatib's remarks came after UN assistant secretary-general Oscar Fernandez-Taranco said the PA would face a serious lack of funds if donor countries were unable to come up with enough cash to continue funding projects already underway. September's salaries would be the first to go, he predicted.

Dot 5. August 19th - Arab states are not paying:

Arab states have cut financial aid to the Palestinian Authority so far this year, according to PA figures seen by Reuters, and the United Nations has warned of a looming Palestinian cash crisis.

"The Arabs are not paying. We urge them to meet their financial pledges," said Saleh Rafat, a member of the Palestine Liberation Organization's executive committee and one of the few Palestinian officials willing to speak out on the matter.

Arab government officials contacted by Reuters declined to comment on the issue.....

A UN report this week said the Palestinian Authority "will face a serious liquidity crisis in September and will have difficulty paying August salaries" due to the aid shortfall. PA officials said August wages were secured.

Dot 6. August 20th - Return to Table is Scheduled in Mideast Talks

The leaders of Israel and the Palestinians have been invited to meet in Washington on Sept. 2 for direct negotiations, the first in 20 months, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced Friday.

The reopening of direct talks would represent a small victory for the Obama administration in its protracted effort to revive the Middle East peace process.

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, have agreed to place a one-year time limit on the talks, two officials briefed on the situation said Thursday evening.

Diplomatic decisions on highly sensitive issues are often made at the highest levels and behind closed doors. I wrote earlier this year about the problems of dependence on donors and how compromised economic independence will undoubtedly yield compromised political independence.

It is impossible to know what precisely motivated Abbas to accept direct talks after months of refusing to do so before Israel upholds its obligations. As mentioned earlier today, not only is Israel failing to meet its commitment to a settlement freeze but it has also accelerated its demolition of Palestinian homes in the last month and a half.

Let's not forget that Saeb Erakat spent days speaking to the Arab media about how the ball is in Netanyahu's court and how they wouldn't agree to negotiations before Netanyahu agrees to freeze settlements and agree to the 1967 borders as a framework.

Now Abbas backtracks on his word, jeopardizing the very little domestic support he had left. Of course in an autocracy, which is what the West Bank under Fatah and Gaza under Hamas have both become, there are worse things than not being popularly legitimate, including, most importantly, the ability to pay the bureaucracy and security apparatus that keeps you in power.

Onward Palestinian Negotiators!

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