Most Palestinians believe....

Time and again were hear analysts, journalists and spokespeople quote public opinion polls that capture Palestinian public opinion on this or that issue regarding the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. This can sometimes be a useful tool for understanding what people think and possibly a starting point for crafting policy goals. But too often the citing of these polls is done in an irresponsible way, outside of context, and inevitably leads to faulty conclusions. This doesn't mean that public opinion polls of Palestinians are useless, but rather that they must be qualified given the realities that exist so that they can truly be informative and not misleading.

Take for example the most notorious misreading of Palestinian public opinion in history: the prediction that Fateh would win in the 2006 Palestinian Legislative Council election, in which they were ultimately trounced by Hamas' Change and Reform ticket. How did the analysts and pollsters get this wrong? The answer is quite simple really, but still regularly overlooked. Analysis based on results from "Who would you vote for" questions does not translate into reality. Take this December 2005 poll, just before the election, (Q.#3) for example. The Fateh list led the Hamas list by nearly 20 points. Of course the outcome was quite the opposite.

Here are a few reasons why this happens that we must keep in mind whenever hearing these poll numbers. First, Hamas is notoriously underrepresented in Palestinian public opinion polls. At times, this has been a matter of political strategy to appear as the underdog, and at other times this has been simply due to failure to capture Hamas supporters for various reasons, including the unwillingness of Hamas supporters to participate face-to-face interviews and focus groups in an increasingly intimidating political climate where repression is steadily on the rise.

Other factors that should be considered, particularly in the local elections where Hamas significantly dominated Fateh and had a far greater showing than the polls expected, is that voters in the localized elections vote for candidates they know and trust. With corruption being such a big issue and so closely associated with Fateh - the ruling party for years - and with religiosity being as high as ever, it should come as no surprise that those individuals with a cleaner, more moral reputation in the eyes of an increasingly pious public are likely to get the votes that would elude Fateh candidates, even from independents.

Look at this most recent poll for example (Q. #3). 97% of the population consider themselves religious or somewhat religious. Since this is self-identification, it's important to note that the notion of "religious" in Palestine differs from the western notion of religiosity in polls. To put it succinctly, the idea of being religious in the Palestinian context involves greater conservatism and piety in daily life than the notion of religiosity in the western context, which is often measured simply by "How often do you go to church?" questions.

On the issue of corruption, 65% of respondents answered yes when asked if there is "corruption in (Palestinian Authority) PA institutions under the control of President Abu Mazen". (Q. #5)

Despite this reality and the history of these polls, many still cite these polls to make bold claims, rather foolishly, about one party dominating the other. Examples here, here and here.

But beyond the failure of these polls to reflect anything definitive about public attitudes toward the different political parties, many have used Palestinian public opinion polls to make bold claims about where the Palestinians stand on important issues on the peace process. Examples of that are here, here and here.

Very few who quote these polls mention a critical and foundational flaw in the attempt to use the results of these polls as representations of Palestinian attitudes. These polls only capture opinion of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. They fail to capture the opinion of Palestinians outside of that territory - of which there are millions - which include those in refugee camps, those inside Israel and those in the diaspora. These neglected populations are all direct stakeholders in the outcome of negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. Their histories are as tragically tied to the Palestinian experience of 1948 and 1967 as others. But their voices - and it is important to note that they represent a majority of Palestinians - are not being captured in these polls.

It should come as no surprise then that respondents in these polls often seem in favor of a two-state solution or may show leniency on the refugee issue. It is one thing to say that Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, who make up 25% of Palestinians, favor this or that, but it is another thing all together, and an empirically false and methodologically flawed thing, to attribute these attitudes to all Palestinians. It is worse even to expect the (Palestine Liberation Organization) PLO, the Palestinian negotiating representative which is supposed to be an umbrella organization representing the whole of Palestinians and not just those in the OPT, to negotiate based on the opinion of only 25% of those they claim to represent.

This is, sadly, a mistake that is regularly, and sometimes even willingly, made too often.

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