Netanyahu and other Yahoos: Short and Long Term Objectives Served

Late last night the news emerged that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition came to an agreement with Shaul Mofaz, the recently-elected head of the Kadima party to form a unity government. The deal, which would put Netanyahu atop a coalition that controls more than 3/4 of the Israeli parliament, took many by surprise.

It shouldn't shock anyone however. The deal is in the mutual interests of Netanyahu and Mofaz and smaller parties within the coalition like Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas had little sway in the matter.

For Netanyahu, an agreement with Mofaz's 29-seat Kadima party which stipulates that Kadima will follow Likud policies through the election in 2013 is a de facto expansion of the Likud Party. While Netanyahu's Likud was likely to win the largest number of seats if an election was held this fall, he would still have to piece together a coalition of right-wing parties similar to the current coalition. This was not only possible but probable, however it would not be the safest outcome for Netanyahu. Given divisive issues that could break the coalition apart, like the question of outposts, and given the legal troubles of Avigdor Lieberman who heads Yisrael Beiteinu, governing after fall elections was easily imaginable but so were the internal challanges that might come with it.

Mofaz, on the other hand, was heading a party that could count the moments until its own irrelevance became undeniable. Even though Kadima was the largest party in the Knesset, they are unable to bring together a coalition. Polls indicated that languishing in opposition did not serve the party well and if elections where held in the fall Kadima's 29 seats would be cut in half - at least.

This moment in Israeli politics essentially signals the end of the experiment called Kadima. Born out of Likud, Kadima was unable to differentiate itself from its ideological origins enough to justify its existence as a separate party. It seems likely that Kadima will simply dissolve in the future with the more right-wing members reintegrating into Likud and their opponents defecting leftwards.

Until then, however, Kadima had 29 seats which public opinion polls indicated lost half their value. In short, Kadima is like an overpriced house that was bought before the bubble burst whose owners suddenly realized they were significantly underwater. Netanyahu swooped in with the liquidity that comes with premiership and  leased the over-priced home to the Israeli voter who will pay top-shekel to cover the mortgage through 2013 while Mofaz and company enjoy the extra square footage.

The effects of this are essentially two-fold: Netanyahu benefits from additional political stability and maneuverability during an upcoming year filled with unknown variables like coalition disputes, Lieberman's legal issues and the outcome of the US election and at the same time sets the stage for the further decay of the Israeli 'left'.

Remember, when Kadima defected from Likud, Likud shrunk but quickly gained back seats in the next election even as Kadima remained strong. Now, as the carcass of Kadima will be divided up, Likud will only continue to grow and its dominance in Israeli politics is likely to continue well past the inevitable 2013 election. Until then, parties in opposition like the nearly irrelevant Labor party of Yachimovich and practically unknown party of Yair Lapid will continue to be irrelevant and unknown.

Netanyahu has managed to use his leverage over a vulnerable Mofaz to ensure Likud is the only game in town in 2012, 2013 and beyond. His move toward an election, or at least the appearance of that, clarified Kadima's options and put pressure on the party to make a deal just days after Mofaz attacked Netanyahu calling him a liar.

In fact, here is Mofaz quoted just one month before last night's deal: "I intend to replace Netanyahu...I will not join his government."

So, much can change in a month, at least in some areas. For the Palestinian question, however, this changes nothing.

Kadima and Likud are not very different. Even during what some consider the 'good ole days' of Ehud Olmert and Kadima, settlement expansion was on going. In fact, the deepest settlement expansion activity in recent history was a Kadima initiative.

If any good comes out of this deal between Mofaz and Netanyahu it could only be that it forces those seriously thinking about a way forward to finally forgo, entirely, the idea that there is a viable, anti-colonialist political alternative to Likud in Israeli politics or will be one any time soon. There isn't. 

Thus, we shouldn't be waiting for it and we should operate under the assumption that it isn't going to happen.

If Obama was the best shot the Palestinians had, and will have, and Netanyahu has guaranteed right-wing dominance of Israeli politics well into an Obama second term, the move toward this new coalition is only further proof that the entire US-led negotiations framework is a pitiful waste of time.

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