Relax Fascists, Avigdor Lieberman isn't going away

When the long awaited decision on corruption charges against Avigdor Lieberman finally came down this week resulting in an indictment on "breach of trust" charges, the question of how this would impact Israeli politics came to the fore. Today, Avigdor Lieberman announced he is stepping down from his post as Foreign Minister in the Israeli government. Lieberman and his Beiteinu party are the keystone in any viable Israeli government coalition and so this news might lead some to believe a significant shakeup in Israeli politics is coming. This couldn't be further from the truth.

First, some background on Lieberman for those who are not familiar. Avigdor Lieberman is Israel's foreign Foreign Minister. That's not a typo. You see, Lieberman came to Israel from Moldova and illegally resides in the Israeli colony of Nokdim in the occupied Palestinian West Bank. He is likely the only Foreign Minister in the world to not live in the sovereign territory of the state he represents. His right-wing party, Yisrael Beiteinu, relies heavily on the Soviet immigrant demographic and takes racist positions against the Palestinians, perhaps most clearly against Palestinian citizens of Israel. For more on this, see an interview I did with Knesset member Ahmad Tibi.

The colony Lieberman lives in.

Liberman's party has been a central player in several previous coalitions. They've increased the number of seats they've won in each Israeli election since the party's inception a decade and a half ago. While the popularity of the traditional powerhouses Likud and Labor have fluctuated during these years, Lieberman has been on a steady rise.

So what does his resignation today mean? Some in the twitter-sphere have expressed joy at the resignation of Lieberman and while it would be great to see him, and the element he brings, out of Israeli politics, that simply isn't going to happen. Rather, it appears today's move was calculated strategically with election interests in mind. Lieberman's party merged with Netanyahu's Likud and was on track to win anywhere from 35 to 40 seats, doubling the closest opponent, and surely leading the next coalition government made of right-wing parties. Ariel Sharon once resigned after an Israeli commission found he had responsibility in the massacres of Palestinian refugees in Sabra and Shatila. Even though the commission recommended he never hold another ministerial post, this didn't kill his political career. Indeed he would eventually become Prime Minister and preside over the single largest period of settlement expansion since the Menachem Begin era.

The Israeli election is a little over a month away on 22 January. At that time Lieberman would probably have left the post of Foreign Minister anyway and taken the position of Vice Prime Minister or something else. His resignation from the post today is a tactical one that will allow him to deal with the indictment quickly and reenter the political contest in time to resume a powerful position.

The reality is Israeli politics is trending rightward in every way. Those who are hoping for some sort of redemption shouldn't hold their breath. These trends are long-term, partly demographic, and unlikely to change.

Sure, some are terrified at the prospect of Lieberman becoming the face of Israel, but perhaps that will finally bring about the long overdue critical look in the mirror Zionism has put off. For us Palestinians, we're all too familiar with this sight and let me tell you, it is ugly. 

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